What won't be as surprising are the winners on the night, many of which could have been settled as locks several moons ago...
So predictions are as predictions will always be, pointless and ultimately fruitless apart from those categories which still have some sort of lottery attached;
Rourke Vs Penn
A monolithic acting face off. Probably the most exciting category of the night and to be honest either winning would greatly ameliorate what is certain to be a dour night in award terms. Many pundits would claim that Rourke is the sentimental choice, Penn the actors' choice. But that is a disservice to both men, who will have a much larger voting base and could conceivably cancel each other out. I love both performances (the Leading Actor category is arguably the strongest category in the field) but I just feel Penn will edge the voting.
Winslet Vs Hathaway Vs Streep
Not as uncertain as Rourke/Penn but another category which won't necessarily mean victory for Winslet. As with the Leading Actor race, Streep won the SAG award (voted for by actors, the largest group in the Academy) and Hathaway has picked up a few critics awards during the award season. But with Winslet having won the Golden Globe and BAFTA I won't be the one to back another actress!
Cruz Vs Tomei Vs Davis
Davis winning would not be the biggest surprise to be honest. Cruz still remains favourite in my view though Tomei could also nick the prize.
I think the other races are pretty much signed, sealed and delivered. Slumdog will win at least six prizes including Best Picture (the most boring line-up since Chicago won a few years back). The Curious Case of Benjamin Button should win two or three techies including visual effects and make-up. Wall-E for animated film, Waltz with Bashir for foreign language film and Man on Wire for documentary.
Another indicator for the night will be the two sound categories (mixing and editing). If Slumdog wins both then we're looking at the first clean sweep since Return Of The King in 2003.
